A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
