The Palestinian faction is likely to demand substantial changes to the US administration's Gaza ceasefire proposal but could ultimately agree to the outline in the coming days as a foundation for renewed negotiations, as per experts and insiders familiar with the group.
Trump's Time Limit and Proposal Outline
The US president imposed a time limit of “a few days” from this week for Hamas to reply to his 20-point plan, which aims to conclude the 24-month war in the Gaza Strip and enable an seemingly open-ended international administration of the war-torn region, or confront severe repercussions.
Political analyst Mkhaimar Abusada stated that Hamas now confronts a choice of “two difficult options.” He added, “Should they refuse the proposal, as Trump has emphasized, the outcome will be unfavorable and will permit Israel to take all necessary actions to finish this. They will say ‘yes, but we require this and that’.”
Hamas's Key Concerns
A senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations noted that it would be very difficult for Hamas to accept the terms unconditionally. “That is understandable. The text lacks details. But any response short of total and final acceptance will be exploited by Hamas by Israel, the Trump administration, and possibly the Europeans,” he said.
Israel's prime minister has accepted the US proposal, which included many of Israel's key requirements and was drafted without input from the Palestinian faction.
The Israeli leader, who is sought for suspected war crimes by the ICC related to the military campaign in Gaza, has stated that Israel would “finish the job” if the group refused the proposal or delayed its execution. Earlier this year, Israeli forces ended a two-month truce, declining to proceed with a planned second phase that could have permanently halted hostilities.
Internal Divisions and Outside Influence
The group's leadership are split between Istanbul, Qatar, and the Gaza Strip, which hinders discussions on the group's response. Turkish officials and Qatar are putting pressure on Hamas to make concessions.
A major obstacle is the plan's requirement that Hamas surrender weapons, a insider familiar with the organization said. The surrender of arms would be very difficult for the militants to accept, especially without any political process or substantial progress toward a two-state solution.
“There are varying viewpoints within the movement. The membership in Doha tend to be more practical, particularly compared to the armed wing in Gaza. There is an obvious need to secure the buy-in of the military wing, and the ordinary members,” the analyst explained.
Conflict Context and Humanitarian Toll
Hostilities were triggered by the Hamas raid into Israeli territory that resulted in the deaths of over a thousand people, mostly non-combatants. About two hundred fifty were taken hostage, of whom 48 remain in Gaza, though fewer than half are surviving.
More than sixty-six thousand people, mostly civilians, have been fatally injured by the Israeli military campaign in Gaza, much of the area left in rubble, and the majority of the 2.3 million-strong population displaced repeatedly.
Trump's Proposal Specifics
Trump's proposal will mandate the fighters to release all Israeli hostages within 72 hours of a truce starting, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli military forces to a security perimeter along the border, and a increase of humanitarian aid. It also stipulates Israel to release over 1,000 detainees, a number imprisoned for life, which Hamas could frame as a significant win.
Another issue for the faction is the vague promise of troop pullbacks, though the clear statement that there will be no takeover or occupation of Gaza by Israel was welcomed by one source familiar with Hamas.
The Group's Present Condition and Capabilities
Some analysts say that divisions within Hamas are frequently exaggerated.
“I don't think there is a real split between Gaza, the Palestinian territories, and the external officials. They all agree on opposing the disarmament because the armed struggle is such a deep principle in their identity and identity,” stated an expert on Hamas.
The group has suffered major casualties in the conflict. Thousands of fighters have been eliminated, along with almost all top commanders. Research by ACLED indicated that at least forty commanders and important figures in Hamas's military wing had been targeted by air attacks since March. These losses have resulted in only a single top leader from Hamas's pre-7 October military council still in command, the group reported.
However the faction continues insurgent activities and upholds fragments of governance in the lack of any replacement. Humanitarian officials in the territory said that the faction still had a significant influence in the urban center, the “refugee areas” in the south, and the coastal zone of al-Mawasi.
Hamas, which was founded in the late 1980s, has enlisted thousands of new fighters who, though inexperienced and lacking gear, can cause harm on Israeli forces.
The expert noted that, according to military sources, 90% of leaders had been killed, 97% of its rockets used or neutralized, but only 40% of the faction's vast tunnel network had been destroyed. “Hamas have adjusted to the new conditions. They are operational in zones where the IDF has declared Hamas is totally defeated, but you can’t totally erase Hamas. They have metamorphosed and they have survived,” he concluded.
Within Hamas Resistance to the Proposal
Certain inside the group are determined to rejecting the Trump plan outright.
“There exists a trend from the military wing, particularly the younger fighters, which aims to keep fighting,” the analyst explained. “They believe is that Israel is facing challenges: the call-up of part-time soldiers is a huge burden, national votes are due within a year, there is increasing international and domestic pressure … So, for this faction, it’s just a question of who will hold out the longest.”
