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"I'll be sitting in this position by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, joking that if our discussion was successful, he might welcome the interviewer into his official residence for another chat in 2026.

There is rarely ever break for those in the top job. Shortly before we sat down, the PM had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his close friend, US President Donald Trump, had just attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was considerably lengthier than typical, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

As the year starts, Sir Keir appears to have had a kind of a reboot. Perhaps even just some relaxation with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly appeared to have left him in a more positive mood than at the difficult end of 2025, a awful annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they think his fortunes are about to improve?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the leader is that a significant number of his party members think he's underperforming at his job. Some of them would sooner gamble and oust him in 2026.

However Sir Keir was dismissing such talk during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he stated he'd be "judged at the poll", maintaining no one would strip his term from him – even if the optimal path of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 may be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the fight of our lifetime and I plan to lead us," he declared.

Upcoming Local Votes

The problem for the PM is that he will be judged long before then – in a major set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to protest, perhaps too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may not want to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir suggesting that there were no scenario under which he would step down, should one of his colleagues ran against him for the job, should those elections prove catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to explain his unpopularity by saying the voters was understandably eager for things to get better. He aimed to persuade me, and the nation, that this year would be a change.

The economic situation would improve despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when policies the government put in place during their first turbulent year began to take effect.

• He committed to shut asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, although he did not set a new date on that.
• He added too, with the proviso that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He disclosed for the first occasion that Western allies were now talking about how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to protect a possible peace.

His central argument is that soon the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have spoken with renewed vitality than observed from him for a some time – less tense, maybe, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with greater political direction, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his points were familiar ones.

When he finds himself in this much political difficulty, does he need a change of tack?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because government is difficult, but because he and his colleagues have erred, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The PM admitted that he regretted saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when comments he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer blamed "the process" for not catching what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is facing clear political risks as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the idea he would be comfortable with these events seems implausible.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but we "simply lack the entire story at the moment".

Critics called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the government is expected to face increased demands to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also always been growing pressure in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the results of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's pursuing that, but his new more concrete commitment to move closer with the EU's single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will likely trigger protests that he is breaking his pledge never to try to reverse the results that flowed from Brexit.

A move to align with more of the single market will delight many on his backbenches, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to