Iranian authorities are weighing the transfer of hundreds of thousands of Afghani migrants across its western borders with neighboring states. This step forms part of what authorities call as a inevitably more aggressive and unexpected approach in the wake of the bombing of its nuclear sites and the European reimposition of United Nations penalties.
Multi-Pronged Offensive Involves Expansion of Missile Development
The broad strategy encompasses expansion of its missile programme, bolstering air defense systems, halting collaboration with the UN nuclear watchdog and, on 18 October, preventing the formation of a United Nations panel to supervise the implementation of the restored penalties. Authorities continue to resist to resuming negotiations with the United States, believing the talks would fail.
Migrant Warning Mirrors Turkish President's Warning
The warning about migrant movement in a western direction and also eastward resembles the warning issued by the leader of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who warned of sending millions of Syrian refugees into European nations.
Tehran has periodically had to accommodate as many as 6 million Afghan refugees, but human rights groups state that in the current year, one million Afghans have been sent back to Afghanistan, having fled either due to economic hardship or Taliban control.
Amnesty claimed the mass expulsions were increased in the wake of Israel’s 12 June attacks on Tehran's officials and nuclear facilities. It estimates 500,000 Afghans have been sent back across the frontier after the attacks.
Document Nullification for Afghan Refugees
Prior to March of this year, millions of Afghan nationals had been permitted to temporarily legalise their stay in the country by obtaining a “headcount” document. Holders of this permit were eligible for restricted benefits, such as state healthcare, public education, work authorisation, banking access and the right to make rental agreements. However, officials invalidated these registration papers.
The Tehran government have given different figures about the population of Afghan migrants in the nation, but it is thought a minimum of 2 million are in Iran illegally. The UN high commissioner for refugees forecasts that as many as four million Afghans could be returned to Afghanistan in the coming months.
Broader Programme of Reconstruction In Progress
A broader programme of repair and recovery is under way in the country, involving debates about the levers it retains to safeguard its interests after the joint strikes by Israel and the US in June. Tehran has called back its ambassadors from France, Germany and the UK for discussions at the Iranian foreign office about the situation.
Officials are leaning against withdrawing from the NPT, partly since the substantive steps have already been taken to end co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Negotiation Offers and International Response
Iranian officials confirm that in discussions with the French at the UN general assembly, Tehran proposed to allow weapons inspectors to inspect the damaged facility at Natanz, and additionally suggested to report on its stockpile of highly enriched uranium within 45 days. In return, Iran wanted the threat of the return of United Nations penalties to be lifted permanently, rather than for three months, the original French-led offer.
Tehran alleges the United States declined to participate with these offers, part of what Tehran believes an increasingly unstable and amateurish American diplomacy led by Steve Witkoff, a figure viewed by Tehran as either uninformed or deceitful. For example, Witkoff had sent the Iranian representatives traveling to the United Nations details of a meeting he was intending to hold with Iran’s diplomats, but he canceled the talks altogether.
Upcoming Diplomatic Clash and Moscow's Position
In the next probable diplomatic clash with the US, it is expected that on 18 October Moscow, as current president of the security council, will use its power as a permanent council member to prevent the creation of a United Nations committee to supervise and manage the sanctions the EU reimposed last week.
Russia and China have sent letters to the UN secretary general, Secretary-General Guterres, to state European countries did not have the right to reimpose the penalties as they did on 28 September, since Europe in their view was no longer a participant in the nuclear deal, and had not exhausted the conflict resolution process.
The impasse suggests that some countries will not comply with the implementation of UN penalties. Nations like Japan, Canada, and Turkey have already started to reimpose the sanctions, but countries in the Russian and Chinese orbit will not do so. The Turkish president, Erdoğan, for instance, signed an executive order ordering asset freezes on Iranian people and organizations linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme and major state banks.
Effects of Penalties on Iran's Economy
Officials say the most severe penalties on the country are the current American restrictions, and by comparison the restored UN sanctions originally from 2006-2010 are relatively narrow, since they do not cover Iran's petroleum industry but instead specific asset freezes, weapon restrictions and bans on missile trade.
However, Iran acknowledges that even the limited restoration of UN penalties is affecting investor trust and currency values. The price of the dollar in Iran's open market has reached an all-time high.
